Daily Trading Time: June 2011

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Euro Pulls Back Slightly, Regains Lost Ground

Profit taking after Greek austerity vote

The euro lost ground in forex trading, for a little while, as profit taking ensued after the Greek austerity vote. Now, though, with support from higher gold prices and general risk appetite, the euro is gaining in forex trading.

Indeed, the euro is higher as optimistic forex traders look for better gains. The U.S. dollar is down across the board, falling even to the Japanese yen. Risk appetite is higher, while at the same time concern about the U.S. is setting in.

With the current crisis overcome in the euro zone, focus is now shifting to the U.S. Concerns about a growing deficit are part of the picture. However, the most immediate concern for the global economy is the fact that if the U.S. doesn't raise its debt ceiling, defaults on the trillions in debt might begin.

With that kind of concern about the greenback, it is no wonder the euro has the upper hand right now in currency trading.

Euro Looks for Weekly Gain in Forex Trading

Currency trading with EUR/USD

The euro is heading for a weekly gain in forex trading on the currency market. Unless something dramatic happens tomorrow, the euro will likely end on a much higher note, following a week-long rally.

Euro is getting plenty of support right now as the Greek austerity measures become finalized. Additionally, there is some hope that some sort of process for funding can be arranged for other euro zone countries dealing with possible financial failure.

Also helping the euro in forex trading is the fact that many expect the ECB to raise interest rates next week. Contrasted with the U.S. dollar, whose rate is likely to remain near 0% for a while, the euro looks like a good bet.

IMF Asks U.S. to Raise Its Debt Ceiling

Greenback lower today in currency trading

One of the issues that could weigh heavily on the U.S. dollar in currency trading on the FX market is the fact that the debt ceiling has been reached. For now, dollar weakness is due mostly to relief over the Greek austerity vote, and risk appetite.

Later, though, dollar weakness could come as a result of economic problems, and sovereign debt issues. If the U.S. debt ceiling isn't extended again, defaults could begin, and that would be a real problem for the U.S. dollar -- and China isn't likely to ride to our rescue as it is for the euro zone.

In order to prevent another global financial crisis, the IMF has asked the U.S. to raise its debt ceiling. It will be interesting to see what is decided, and whether members of Congress can come to a budget agreement.

Euro Rallies Even with George Soros Warning

Euro higher in forex trading

The euro is seeing some strength in forex trading on the currency market after dealing with a degree of weakness. Fears about what's next for the euro zone have been weighing on the 17-nation currency.

Worries expressed by billionaire investor George Soros regarding a possible economic collapse in Europe because of Greece have not been enough to bring the euro down. Indeed, some might be hoping that this will spur European leaders to action that will save the region.

Euro is still vulnerable, though, even with the current rally. There is a good chance that it will fall again, and many forex traders are waiting for the outcome of the vote in Greece's parliament.

Canadian Dollar Struggles Against Volatility

Loonie in currency trading

The Canadian dollar is struggling in forex trading on the currency market today. Choppy trading marks CAD/USD as economic news out of the U.S. sends waves of uncertainty through the financial markets.

While the loonie has been struggling to hold on in currency trading, it looks as though it might succumb. The dollar is rising as forex traders look for a safe haven amidst the concerns about the future of the U.S. economy after rising jobless claims and Bernanke's disappointing economic forecast.

Additionally, the Canadian dollar is likely to suffer as oil price drop. The Canadian dollar is connected to oil prices, and with oil prices heading back toward $90 a barrel, it appears that the loonie will have trouble.

Oil Prices Continue to Rise, Helped by a Lower U.S. Dollar

Greenback and oil prices

Last week, the U.S. tapped its strategic reserves, and the IEA released oil into the markets. The move temporarily sent oil prices lower, but they have been stubbornly higher recently.

Some of it has to do with speculation that demand could pick up. However, the lower U.S. dollar has something to with it as well. Oil prices and the dollar often move inversely to each other, and because oil prices are denominated in dollars, when the dollar falls, oil prices tend to rise.

With a weaker U.S. dollar expected in forex trading for a while, there will be little check higher oil prices -- even as reserves are tapped.

U.S. Dollar Down in Forex Trading

Greenback lower in currency trading

With all the optimism and risk appetite as a result of expectations of a Greek bailout, it is little surprise that the U.S. dollar is lower in forex trading.

Greenback is down in currency trading on the FX market today, thanks to renewed appetite for risk. The Aussie is gaining as gold prices rise, loonie is getting support from higher oil prices, and the euro is rising as China pledges its support.

Additionally, there is an expectation that soon forex traders will turn their attention to the U.S. economy, which is flagging. Recovery can't seem to take hold, and that is causing concerns about what could help if the world's largest economy can't hack it. It is little surprise that, for now, the U.S. dollar is struggling.

U.S. Dollar Forex Trading Forecast: More Weakness in the Near Term

Currency trading with the greenback

The U.S. dollar forex trading forecast, for the short term, is likely to see more weakness. Indeed, there are a number of factors likely to affect the greenback in currency trading during the near term. Action Forex offers 5 items undermining the U.S. dollar in forex trading:

1. Concerns about the U.S. debt ceiling, and a downgrade of the sovereign debt rating.

2. Rally of risk is pressuring the dollar as forex traders no longer feel the need for a safe haven.

3. Possible rate hike from the ECB could further pressure the U.S. dollar as forex traders look for higher yields.

4. The long holiday weekend in the U.S. could mean that assets flow elsewhere.

5. Technical analysis currently favors the euro in forex trading.

And, of course, there are long term considerations as well. The U.S. dollar is vulnerable as scrutiny will turn from Greece after the austerity vote guarantees another bailout. Now, focus will be on the U.S. and its debt problems, and that means that the dollar will be under pressure in the future.

Euro Zone to Get Help From China

Euro forex trading forecast looks up

Even though a bailout for Greece is widely expected, there are still concerns about the euro zone in general. Other countries, like Portugal and Ireland, still have debt issues. However, the euro zone might get some help from China.

China is pledging to buy European debt in an effort to keep the 17-nation currency zone running properly. China plans to invest in the sovereign debt market, to the tune of billions of euros.

Not only is the news helping in terms of providing help for the debt crisis in Europe, but the euro is getting a boost as well. If China turns more toward European assets, the U.S. dollar could lose some of its support.

Greek Austerity May Not Be the End of the Problems

Euro zone gets boost from Greek austerity vote

With the way open for another bailout for Greece, the euro zone is getting a boost. The euro is higher in forex trading on the currency market, helped by increased risk appetite.

Between the Greek austerity vote, better news out of the U.S. in terms of home sales, and expectations that China will help out, the euro is doing pretty well.

However, it is important to realize that this isn't over yet. Even with the approval of the Greek government for austerity measures, the solution might not be found. There are still other countries in the euro zone that may face the some problems, and there has to be a way to continue supporting Greece, rather than all of these one-off packages that throw the region -- and the world -- into uncertainty for weeks at a time.

For now, though, crisis seems to be averted. The euro can gain while eyes turn to the U.S. and its debt ceiling and budget issues.

Greek Austerity May Not Be the End of the Problems

Euro zone gets boost from Greek austerity vote

With the way open for another bailout for Greece, the euro zone is getting a boost. The euro is higher in forex trading on the currency market, helped by increased risk appetite.

Between the Greek austerity vote, better news out of the U.S. in terms of home sales, and expectations that China will help out, the euro is doing pretty well.

For now, though, crisis seems to be averted. The euro can gain while eyes turn to the U.S. and its debt ceiling and budget issues.

Aussie Struggles in Currency Trading

Australian dollar lower in forex trading

The Aussie is struggling in currency trading on the FX market today, moving lower as concerns about the global economy surface -- and as gold prices drop.

Fears about what is happening in the euro zone are weighing on the Aussie. This is a little odd right now, considering the fact that the euro is rallying right now as forex traders wait for the results of a vote on austerity measures from the Greek parliament.

Indeed, other high beta currencies, including the pound and the euro, have moved higher in forex trading as the U.S. session has opened. Aussie is a bit left behind right now as many traders wait to see what's next.