Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Ringgit Falls as China’s Growth & US Recovery Slows

Asian currencies, the Malaysian ringgit among them, were down today as negative data from China on the weekend followed poor macroeconomic reports from the United States on Friday.

China’s Purchasing Manufacturing Index fell to 55.2 in May from 56.1 in April. The report followed Friday’s US non-farm payrolls that showed employment growing by just 69,000. The data signaled that global economic recovery is slowing and that had a negative impact on assets of emerging economies. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of stocks fell for a fourth session.

USD/MYR rose from 3.1961 to 3.2018 as of 14:18 GMT today.

Euro Rebounds, Is Rally Sustainable?

The rebounded today, posting the second day of gains, but sustainability of the rally is highly questionable. Earlier, the currency declined as European leaders struggled to find a solution for the debt problems of the European Union.

Concerns about the potential breakup of the eurozone grow as politicians cannot provide anything that resembles a meaningful plat to contain the crisis. Germany still objects implementation of joint euro-bonds, arguing that it would not help to resolve the issues. Such indecisiveness may cost Europe dearly as Spain is likely to request a bailout, but the sheer size its economy means that it would be much harder (compared to Greece) to rescue the country.

EUR/USD climbed from 1.2415 to 1.2484 as of 13:44 GMT today, following the earlier decline to 1.2385. EUR/JPY was up from 96.95 to 97.58.

Canadian Dollar Mixed as Traders Consider Bank of Canada

Canadian dollar is mixed today, turning in a spotty performance, as Forex traders weigh the week ahead. Commodities are lower, which affects the loonie, but there is also a small element of risk appetite, which is helping.


Right now, loonie is higher than the greenback, gaining ground on the idea that the Canadian economy is better off than the US economy. Against the UK pound, though, loonie lower. European currencies are getting a bit of a boost from the latest retail sales data out of Germany, which shows an increase.

However, there are still some questions about what’s next for the loonie. The Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates the same, rather than raising them, later this week. This points to concerns about economic growth, and the fact that it is slowing. Lower oil prices also won’t represent much help to the loonie in forex trading, since Canada relies a great deal on oil prices for support.

For now, Forex traders seem to be looking for direction, and trying to decide what is next for the Canadian dollar — and other currencies.

At 12:12 GMT USD/CAD is down to 1.0391, lower than the open at 1.0393. GBP/CAD is higher, heading up to 1.5981 from the open at 1.5966.

Won Drops as Traders Skeptical About G7 Meeting


 June 05th, 2012 at 13:36
The South Korean won declined today as members of the Group of Seven meet today. Forex market participants do not believe that the meeting will bring anything new and expect only more talks about how bad the crisis is.

Risk aversion rules the FX market and riskier currencies suffer from it. Commodities also reacted negatively to pessimism among traders, hurting prospects for emerging economies that are usually dependent on export of raw materials. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of commodities fell 0.4 percent.

USD/KRW went down from 1,179.7000 to 1,180.2999 as of 13:35 GMT today.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

US firms put social values before big profits

By Jane O'Brien
BBC News, Washington

Penny Jones-Napier says her customers are happy to pay more to support the firm's values
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Running a business
Brazil's business labyrinth of bureaucracy
Big Apple's small firms
Silicon Valley's hiring crunch
Brains into bucks

Tough decisions are often inevitable if a business wants to make money.

But in the next few weeks, half a dozen US states are expected to pass legislation that will for the first time protect companies which value their social impact as much as the bottom line.

Whether it's buying locally, protecting the environment or launching community projects, the new "benefit corporations" have a common mission - to do well by doing good.

"It's becoming a national movement," says Penny Jones-Napier, owner of the Big Bad Woof pet store in Hyattsville, Maryland, the first business in the US to adopt the new benefit corporation designation. "What started with small businesses is moving into the mainstream."

As a benefit corporation, Big Bad Woof is protected from legal action if it makes decisions that aren't in the financial interests of its shareholders.

The company can support local suppliers for instance, even though that might not be the cheapest option and could reduce the profit margin.

Ms Jones-Napier says her customers are also happy to pay extra to support the company's values. Since opening in August, she says the store has made $500,000 (£310,000), and is on track for an annual turnover of $1.4m.
'World-changing'

"Benefit corporations are brilliant because they allow companies to pursue profit - for which no-one should apologise - and at the same time have a positive impact on society," says corporate legal expert Laura Jordan of The Capital Law Firm in Washington DC.
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We've made the active decision that it's better not to have outside investors if it means we would have to forgo our social mission”
Matt Kavanagh
Co-founder of diving firm Blue Planet

Whereas the two goals were once seen as incompatible, people in their 20s and 30s regard them as complementary, she says. "They want to use the power of business to change the world."

Benefit corporations must set out clearly in their business charters what they will contribute and how it will improve society. The social mission becomes part of the company's DNA, says Ms Jordan.

Seven states, including New York and California, have already adopted the new business class. These seven states combined produce a third of America's annual economic output, which makes their support for benefit corporations significant, says Andrew Kassoy, co-founder of B Lab.

A non-profit organisation, B Lab was launched five years ago to harness the power of small businesses to help solve social and environmental problems. It offers certificates called a B Corp for businesses that meet minimum performance standards and consider the interests of stakeholders as well as shareholders.

"It's a bit like the Fairtrade certificate for coffee, only B Corp applies to the whole business," says Mr Kassoy. Benefit corporations emerged a few years later as a logical extension of that grassroots movement, he adds.
'Legitimacy'

Last year, Farm Community Consulting became the first company in Virginia to become a benefit corporation. It's an adjunct to Blue Ridge Produce, a local food aggregation business that is also B Corp certified.

Blue Ridge Produce helps small farmers get their produce to stores

"I have been interested in philanthropy for a long time," says chairman Jim Epstein. "When the concept of B Corp came along it totally resonated with me and how I saw the future."

His business helps around 10,000 small farmers connect with wholesalers, supermarkets and distributors. "It's a move away from big agriculture," he says.

"Being a benefit corporation adds an extra layer of legitimacy. It's a public declaration that we've made. It's still a long way from becoming mainstream, but it's exciting because the idea is in the public consciousness."

The company is little more than a year old but employs five people and reports a turnover of $3m. Mr Epstein believes it represents a new business model that will one day replace the "amoral" practices of big corporations.
'No option'

Washington DC, the US capital, is now also considering legislation that will allow companies to become benefit corporations.

The move is being welcomed by Matt Kavanagh, co-founder of Blue Planet, a diving company in Washington with a commitment to ocean conservation. He says the current lack of legal protection that becoming a benefit corporation would offer has hindered the growth of his business.

Benefit corporations still chase profits, but not at the expense of other factors

"Because of the way the corporate structure works, there is no option for us to make decisions that don't maximise profit." he says. "If we were to take on outside investors, they could say that our job, having taken their investment, is to maximise their return.

"We've made the active decision that it's better not to have outside investors if it means we would have to forgo our social mission.

"But none of us in the company have the capital to move this forward, so we're growing, but at half or a quarter of the speed that we could if we were able to attract outside investment."

There are still fewer than 100 benefit corporations in the US, but Mr Kassoy expects that number to grow rapidly over the next few years.

"The greatest energy is coming from a new generation of entrepreneurs who are being supported by a new generation of workers who won't check their values at the door.

"And consumers want to see these entrepreneurs succeed if they do business in a different way."

Colombia-US free trade agreement comes into force

The first shipment of Colombian flowers was seen off by flag-waving children
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Related Stories
Colombia head hails US trade deal
US passes South Korea trade deal
Latin America thrives during US 'lost decade'

The long-delayed free trade agreement between the US and Colombia has come into effect, more than five years after being signed.

At the stroke of midnight, a planeload of flowers - an important export for Colombia - left Bogota to become the first shipment under the deal.

The pact was held up in the US Congress amid concern over Colombia's record of violence against trade union leaders.

It finally passed last October, after pressure from the Obama White House.

Later on Tuesday, a Harley-Davidson motorcycle was set to be unveiled as one the first US exports to Colombia as part of the agreement.

Both countries hope the deal will boost mutual exports and investments, as well as underpin the two countries' close political ties.

Colombia has long been seen as one of the United States' staunchest allies in the region.

The pact means a wide variety of goods, including machinery, raw materials and agricultural products, can be traded without import tariffs needing to be paid.

The US International Trade Commission estimates that the value of US exports to Colombia could rise by $1.1bn (£680m), while Colombian exports the other way could grow by $487m.

The accord, signed during President George W Bush's administration, was opposed by US labour groups, who feared job losses.

Many Democratic members of Congress argued that it should not be approved until they were satisfied Colombia had done enough to stop violence against union organisers.

There was also opposition from Colombian trade unions, who expressed concern about whether the country was developed enough to compete.

Urging Congress to ratify the deal, the Obama administration warned that further delay would cost the US jobs and the chance to boost exports.

Alibaba will buyback half of Yahoo stake for $7.1bn

US internet company Yahoo said it has reached a deal to sell part of its stake in China's biggest internet company Alibaba Group.

Alibaba will buy back half the 40% stake owned by Yahoo, following years of negotiations.

The deal will raise about $7.1bn (£4.5bn) for Yahoo, which has been losing ground to rival Google and Facebook in online advertising.

The agreement also allows Alibaba to consider an initial public offering.
Shareholders

Both companies revealed in a statement that Alibaba will pay Yahoo $6.3bn in cash and up to $800m in Alibaba preferred stock.

For Yahoo, the deal gives it the ability to pay dividends, make acquisitions, or buy back its own shares, something its stockholders have been asking for.


"We look forward to delivering the proceeds of the near-term transaction to our shareholders," said Timothy R Morse, chief financial officer at Yahoo.

Some analysts have said that most of Yahoo's value is based on its Asian assets, and selling them will allow its core US operations to be valued by investors.
'New chapter'

The agreement also allows the Chinese group to buy more of Yahoo's remaining 20% stake, if Alibaba pushes ahead with a sale of its own shares on the stockmarkets, a move that many observers expect.

The deal is welcome news for Alibaba which has long been looking to buy back the part of its company owned by Yahoo. However, negotiations have suffered many setbacks.

"This transaction opens a new chapter in our relationship with Yahoo," said Jack Ma, chief executive officer of Alibaba Group, which runs the popular Chinese online market place Taobao.

He also said both companies would continue to work together, with Yahoo's global audience being an attractive opportunity for Alibaba, as it seeks growth outside China.

Google wins Chinese approval for Motorola Mobility bid

Chinese regulators have approved Google's $12.5bn (£7.9bn) purchase of US phone maker Motorola Mobility, the final hurdle for the deal to go through.

Chinese authorities said Google must keep its mobile software, Android, free for other device makers for up to five years.

The acquisition would be Google's biggest ever.

It has already won clearance from US and European regulators.

Google's purchase of Motorola Mobility allows it to move into the manufacturing of phones and tablet computers for the first time.

It also gives Google access to more than 17,000 of the company's valuable patents, which will help it defend itself and Android phone manufacturers in patent disputes.
Patent monitoring

Google said the Chinese government cleared the deal on Saturday.

"Our stand since we agreed to acquire Motorola has not changed and we look forward to closing the deal," the company said.

The same deal has already been approved in the US and EU. Both agreed the acquisition would not raise competition issues - but each noted they would monitor the "strategic" use of patents.

The European Commission took longer than expected to rule on the merger, requesting more information in January before making its decision in February.

Its concern focused on whether Google would favour Motorola Mobility over handset manufacturers like HTC or Samsung - which also use Google's Android system.

However, the commission ruled: "It is unlikely that Google would restrict the use of Android solely to Motorola, a minor player in the European Economic Area.

Monday, May 21, 2012

Governments are Buying Gold, Target $2000

Don’t give up on Gold yet Economist Shayne Heffernan said in a note to traders today, he added that Gold may still reach $2000 in 2013.
Central banks across the globe continued the now established trend of net purchasing with demand in Q1 2012 reaching 80.8t. Demand was driven by Eastern Europe with Russia and Kazakhstan adding to their holdings and accounting for a substantial amount of the purchasing. Mexico’s central bank made the largest single purchase of 16.8t. The main driver for this demand by emerging market central banks is the need to diversify their holdings.

First quarter gold investment demand (including gold bars, coins, ETFs and similar products) grew by 13% year-on-year to 389.3t. In US$ terms, this equated to a demand value of US$21.2bn, 38% higher year-on-year. Increases in demand for ETFs and medals/imitation coins meant that demand reached 389.3t, 45.8t above Q1 2011 despite declines in demand for physical bars and coins.

First quarter demand for ETFs and similar products totalled 51.4t, equivalent to a value of US$2.8bn; in stark contrast to the first quarter of 2011, when the sector witnessed net outflows.

Global gold demand in Q1 2012 was 1,097.6 tonnes (t), down 5% from the high demand levels seen in Q1 2011 (1,150.7t), according to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends report.

This decrease was largely to be expected given the introduction of import taxes in India and high gold prices.

Gold demand value however, showed a 16% increase year on year to an estimated US$59.7 billion.

The average price of gold for the quarter was US$1,690.57, 22% higher than the average for Q1 2011. Demand for the quarter was underpinned by increased demand in China, continued central bank purchasing and inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Shayne Heffernan oversees the management of funds for institutions and high net worth individuals.

Shayne Heffernan holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reached a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea (ASEAN+3) Building Momentum

ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea ( ASEAN+3) have agreed to strengthen the regional financial safety net during the 15th ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting held in Manila Thursday.
The attendees exchanged their views on the recent global and regional economic developments and policy responses, and discussed measures to further strengthen the regional financial co-operation as well.
Despite the region has posted steady growth so far, the delegates feared that the prolonged sovereign debt crisis in Europe could continue to weigh on regional economies. Besides, they also worried about the continuing inflationary pressures, the increasing volatility in short-term capital flows.
Under the circumstances, the attendees were determined to heighten their efforts against the impact of such potential risks by strengthening the Chiang Mai Initiative Multi-lateralisation (CMIM) as a part of the regional financial safety net, including doubling the total size of the CMIM from US$120 to 240-B, increasing the IMF de-linked portion, lengthening the maturity and supporting period, introducing a crisis prevention facility called “CMIM Precautionary Line (CMIM- PL)”, etc.
“We strongly believe that our agreement made today on strengthening the CMIM .. will serve as another important step forward to strengthen the regional financial safety net and to pursue sustainable growth in the region,” said the delegates from the above-mentioned countries in a joint statement released after the meeting.

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Linda Johnson,
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The meeting, which was co-hosted by Keat Chhon, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance of Cambodia, and Bahk Jaewan, Minister of Strategy and Finance of Korea, was attended by the Central Bank Governors for the 1st time.

World Bank, Investing in Myanmar

World Bank to open office in Myanmar
The World Bank (WB) is assessing Myanmar’s debt level as it sets up working relations with the country 25 yrs after stopping loans, an official at the lender said.
The Washington-based World Bank will open an office in Myanmar this June, Pamela Cox, the bank’s vice President for East Asia, said Thursday.
The lender, along with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is gathering data to analyze the Nation’s debt sustainability, she said.
“This is to see how much debt stress this country is going to be under once it normalizes relations and how much debt should be forgiven,” said Cox, who will travel to the country in June to meet with authorities. “We are not at the stage of loans yet.”
The European Union (EU) and nations including the US and Australia have said they will ease sanctions against Myanmar, where a new government took power in March 2011 and initiated steps to liberalize after 50 yrs of military rule.
Japan on 22 April announced it would forgive 303.5-B Yen (US$3.8-B) in loans and interest and roll over 198.9-B Yen of debt with a new loan.
Myanmar President Thein Sein is courting investment from Japan amid a shift toward democracy over the past year that’s encouraged re-engagement with developed nations. Honda Motor Co. (NYSE:HMC) is among companies expressing interest in Myanmar, a nation of 64-M people between India and China, formerly known as Burma.
Investing in Myanmar
HCM offer a variety of different alternatives to investing in Myanmar.

Equities
The first is the HCM Separately Managed Account, this operates via some of Asia’s largest Banks, this invests directly in liquid securities of companies that are most active in Myanmar.
Separately Managed Account (SMA) is a management service designated individually managed by our senior trader and customized to fit your investment objectives.
HCM’s customer funds provide superior risk-adjusted returns through proprietary and fundamental analysis to maximize portfolio returns
Employ the HCM Process to ascertain the shareholder strength of every security in our selected market.
Evaluate those securities through investigative reporting to confirm that they are fundamentally very cheap or very expensive based on current and future cash flows, valuations and dividends.
Exploit those mis-pricings that we identified through the algorithm but were caused by fundamental changes to trade with shareholder sentiment and value versus value alone.
Delegate your investment management to our senior trader with full transparency and current updates of your financial positions.
HCM manages clients’ existing accounts with their current brokerage firms and provide alternate choices of service providers.
Greater transparency, liquidity and control; clients own the stocks purchased on their behalf
Accounts can be financed with either current stock holdings or cash
Equity commission charges are waived
Dividends credited to your account
Client statements are available at anytime
A personal Financial Advisor is assigned to your account with a high degree of customization
Lower investment management fees than similar products
The total area of Myanmar is 678,500 sq km where 657,740 sq km occupies the land and 20,760 sq km occupies the water. The bordering countries are Bangladesh 193 km, China 2,185 km, India 1,463 km, Laos 235 km, and Thailand 1,800 km.
Linda Johnson,
Business Development Director – Private Client Group,
Heffernan Capital Management
Sales@Heffcap.com
Singapore
3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408
Fax: +65 6329 9699
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Mining, Business Services, Fisheries, Agriculture
Depending on your Citizenship you may be able to Invest Directly in some of our Venture Capital Projects in Myanmar, Find Out More, Click Here
Myanmar is set to see an economic boom period and the new Government relax investment rules, free the political process and attract foreign investors with investment and tax incentives.
The International Monetary Fund predicts the economy will grow at a rate of some 5.5 percent for 2012. Such projections — in line with neighboring Indo-Chinese economies — are significant given the weak global outlook. But there is potential for greater, sustained growth.
Consider the country’s ample natural resources of oil and gas, as well as forestry products and minerals. Factor in a strategic location that can link China, India and Southeast Asia. Add also that Myanmar has sizable population of some 54 million, many of whom are of working age, and eager for jobs. The economy, among the region’s poorest at present, has the potential to grow.
As Aung San Suu Kyi takes her parliamentary seat, Myanmar’s President Thein Sein will continue to drive the Myanmar Economy.
The current developments demonstrate the pace of change and growing confidence in Myanmar. Close ties to Singapore also brings into the spotlight an economic dimension to the ongoing political reform.
Investors are eager to explore investments in Myanmar. Considered the last, large and untapped market in Asia, many sectors of the economy have been underdeveloped or else dominated by Chinese firms.
Linda Johnson,
Business Development Director – Private Client Group,
Heffernan Capital Management
Sales@Heffcap.com
Singapore
3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408
Fax: +65 6329 9699

Mark Mobius Invests in Africa

Mark Mobius, executive chairman of the Templeton Emerging Markets Group and lead portfolio manager of the fund, says: “We believe that Africa’s markets present significant opportunities for development due to a combination of strong economic growth, rising demand for the region’s vast natural resources, and a growing consumer market.

“Africa is expected to grow more than 7% annually in the next 20 years, due to an improving investment environment, better economic management and developed as well as emerging markets rising demand for the continent’s resources, all of which offers a compelling proposition to global investors.”

Ian Wilkins, Franklin Templeton UK country head, adds: “UK retail and institutional investors are showing considerable appetite for frontier markets as they look to access the fastest-growing economies in the world.”

The Templeton Africa fund has received verbal approval from the Luxembourg regulator, the CSSF.

The fund will aim for long-term capital growth by investing in African-listed equities or companies based elsewhere but with principal business activies in Africa.

The fund will be launched as a sub-fund of its Luxembourg-registered Sicav. The minimum investment in the fund is $5,000 or currency equivalent and the AMC is 1.6 per cent.

Asian Currency Outlook Kyat, RMB, Ringgit, Baht, Peso, Singapore Dollar

Currencies in Asia fell last week but should regain ground this week and will see a strong rally should the USA undermine the USD with a QE3 announcement.
The rupiah, which has traded in the area of 9,100 against the dollar in recent weeks, is expected to strengthen to the 9,000 level in the coming weeks. That is the trading level assumed by the government in the revised budget submitted to the House of Representatives last month.
Myanmar began a managed flotation of its currency, the kyat, on April 2.
The central bank set a reference rate of 818 kyat to the dollar, bringing the official currency rate in line with its value on the black market.
The central bank said the float would allow market forces to determine the value of the kyat while leaving room for it to influence the unit’s value.
Thailand’s baht weakened 0.6 percent from April 12 to 30.90. Thailand’s onshore financial markets were closed on April 13 and April 16 for public holidays. The Philippine peso climbed 0.1 percent to 42.607, while Taiwan’s dollar was little changed at NT$29.521. Vietnam’s dong gained 0.4 percent to 20,838.
The ringgit is likely to be traded in a tight range next week, between 3.06 and 3.07 on uncertain market conditions.
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Linda Johnson,
Business Development Director – Private Client Group,
Heffernan Capital Management
Sales@Heffcap.com
Singapore
3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408
Fax: +65 6329 9699

China’s RMB declined 0.09 percent this week to 6.3085 per dollar after the nation widened the currency’s trading band to 1 percent from 0.5 percent from April 16. The band, which is centered on a rate set daily by the central bank, was last broadened in May 2007 from 0.3 percent. The central bank weakened the RMB’s daily reference rate against the dollar on four out of five days this week.
The won posted a second weekly loss, falling 0.4 percent to 1,139.55. North Korea said it will continue its space program following the failure of a rocket launch on April 13, according to a statement April 19 that the North’s official Korean Central News Agency attributed to a spokesman for the Korean Committee for Space Technology.
South Korea unveiled new cruise missiles yesterday that it said could hit anywhere in North Korea. The military has deployed the missiles and is making preparations to ensure it can respond firmly to North Korean provocations, Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min Seok said

The Economy of Sulawesi Indonesia

Sulawesi, Center for production and processing for Agriculture, Plantations, Fisheries, Oil & Gas, and Mining

The Sulawesi Economic Corridor, is in the center of Indonesia, and positioned to be the center for production and processing of agriculture, plantation, fisheries, oil & gas, and mining.

Now agriculture, rice, corn, cocoa, soybean and cassava, is the largest contributor to the region’s Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) and uses about 50% the total workforce, the sector is hindered by a lack of adequate economic and social infrastructure: roads, electricity, water and healthcare.

Sulawesi is the 3rd largest food producer in Indonesia, but its productivity is lower compared to other regions owing to low fertilizer use, a limited access to modern agricultural equipment, and a proper irrigation network.
The Master Plan I for Sulawesi focuses on the optimization of land use, the creation of new rice paddy fields, and the rehabilitation and conservation of agricultural land.

The plan also addresses financing for farmers, the creation of quality storage to reduce potential loss of quantity and value of post-harvest products, and improving access roads and irrigation facilities.

In addition, a downstream sector need to be developed to add value to Sulawesi’s commodities.

Dr. Syahrul Yasin Limpo, Governor of South Sulawesi, says, “We expect that our agriculture sector can become a agro-industry in the future.”

Within Southeast Asia, Indonesia is the largest producer of fishery products, and Sulawesi is the biggest producer nationally.

The industry is a powerful contributor to the Corridor’s economic growth but over fishing has raised red flags in its continued expansion. The Master Plan wants to develop aqua-culture as well as increase added-value products and activities for seaweed processing.

Another of Sulawesi’s strengths lies in Nickel: it boasts the most advanced Nickel production, Indonesia ranks 4th among Global Nickel producers. The national government wants to see more growth in downstream Nickel product refining.

Agriculture and cattle

The cultivation of crops – rice, corn, cassave, vegetables and fruit – probably puts to work more people than any other economical activity. Rice is mainly grown on sawah’s, but in some areas the ricefields are dry. The rice culture is concentrated on the fertile, irrigated southern peninsula, from which a big surplus is exported to other parts of Indonesia.

North-Sulawesi also grows a lot of it’s own food, but the main agrarian wealth comes from tree crops, especially coconuts and clove, and nutmeg. Much money is still being made in the trade of clove – mainly in Minahasa, which are mainly used to produce kretek cigarettes. North-Sulawesi produces about 30 per cent of the country’s clove. The ‘clove-fever’ has spread over the entire island in the last decades however, because even a few trees in the back yard can bring in a small fortune.

Commercial crops, koffee in South-Sulawesi and cacao in western Southeast-Sulawesi, are getting more important as well as secundary crops like soybeans. The agricultural production on the island is small scaled and big companies are rare. Most agriculture is done by small farmers on pieces of ground that are in the hands of the family. Cattle is important – South-Sulawesi is the third cattle-producing province of the country-, but growing still takes place at small scale, there are only a few big companies.

Fishery, forests and mines

Fishery employs a big number of residents of Sulawesi. In the coastal fishery, traditional boats and techniques are used, but modern fisheries and processing points can also be found on Sulawesi nowadays. The most remarkable development is the installation and extension of the coastal fishing farms and shrimp farms, mainly in the south. Much money can be earned with freezing shrimps for exports to Japan.

Other important natural resources are forestry and mining. Due to it’s expensive tropical wood, Central-Sulawesi has important income from forestry. Southeast-Sulawesi produces teakwood. Ratten is valuable as well.In the past, wood and rattan were exported without processing it first, but the government has banned the exports of unprocessed forest products.

Mining is dominated by the nickle mines from Inco in Saroako, South-Sulawesi; where ore of low quality is partially processed for the export; only recently the company succeeded in reaching the break-even point. Niccle ore is also mined in Pomalaa in Southeast-Sulawesi, and asphalt on Pulau Buton. The recent years were known for it’s gold rush in Indonesia; for what Sulawesi concerned, this ‘fever’ was limited to the northern district of Bolaang Mongondow. Deposits of copper in North-Sulawesi and a number of other minerals offer good expectations for mining in the future.

Limited industry

Unless the richness of natural resources the industry has only contributed a little to the economical development. Small scale processing of agricultural products and production of food are fairly widespread. In Makassar, a big wheat-mill is used and in North-Sulawesi are several plants which produce coconut-related products. Several concrete-plants and limestone mines in South-Sulawesi supply for the huge demand and south of Makassar is a papermill. Recently, suger plants have been built in the district of Bone.

On the whole, Sulawesi has to deal with the big distances to important local markets. It has small groups of local population and high cost of labour, compared to the densely populated Jawa, where most Indonesian factories are.

The service sector, like transport and tourism, is getting more important. Due to the extension of the road system, transport over land is light years ahead compared to the situation in the 1960′s. Air connections between the provincial capitals and some smaller points are also in development.
Sulawesi has been famous for it’s sea transport for centuries. The armada of sailing shops from South- and Southeast-Sulawesi, mainly motorized by now, still is used for much of the inter island transport. High expectations of the government go to a much more recent branch: tourism. Until now this development has been limited to South-Sulawesi and a little bit to the north, the only two areas with enough infrastructure.

Finally, the last economic anchor of the Master Plan for Sulawesi is Oil and Gas. Although reserves of these fossil fuels are considered to be low, they have not likely not been properly identified and explored. And, as Indonesia’s overall Crude Oil reserves are declining, Sulawesi may help prolong their lifeline.

A roaring start

About 250 milion years ago the earth was made up from two big continents, Laurasia (the current North-America, Europe and a big part of Asia) and Gondwana (the current South-America, Afria, India, Australia, Antarctica and the remaining part of Asia). Until ten years ago it was accepted that the geological history of Indonesia and the surrounding areas, Malacca, Sumatra, Jawa, Borneo and West-Sulawesi were a part of Lauriasia and were separated from East-Sulawesi, Timor, Seram and other islands that were part of the more southern Gondwana a short time (geologically seen) ago.

This image was changed due to recent geological survey. Proven is that Southern-Tibet, Birma, Thailand, Malakka and Sumatra were in fact a part of Gondwana and that they got de-attached from the Australian – New-Guinee part of the continent. It is assumed that West-Sulawesi, together with Sumatra, Borneo and other islands de-attached from Gondwana about 180 milion years ago. About 90 milion years ago East-Sulawesi separated itself together with New-Guinee, Maluku and Australia from Antarctica and hurried towards the north with a speed of about 10 centimeters a year.

About 15 milion years ago the current East-Sulawesi de-attached from New-Guinee and collided with another islans. It touched the current West-Sulawesi like an arrow and caused the southwestern peninsula to rotate anti-clockwise since then. The Gulf of Bone was formed between South- and Southeast-Sulawesi and the northern peninsula turned around 90 degrees clockwise.

People said, that West-Sulawesi collided with East-Borneo about 3 milion years ago, which caused the Selat Makassar to be closed, this is not proven however. Evidence for this theory is missing, but submarine contours from East-Borneo exactly match those of West-Sulawesi. Thick layers of sediment in Selat Makassar tell that this straigt has been open for at least 25 million years.

The sealevel has fluctuated dramatically in the last 10 milion years, under the influence of ice ages. During periods with a low sealevel islands surfaced, mainly in the south. At times that the sealevel was 100 meters lower than it is now, there should have been an almost uninterrupted land mass between Southeast Borneo and Southwest-Sulawesi.

Then seas were high, Sulawesi should have been several islands which were cut off by straits near Gorontalo and Danau Tempe. The last climax of the sealevel took place about 4000 years ago, when sealevels were four to six meters higher than nowadays. Inhabitants of Sulawesi tell storied about a time that travellers didn’t have to go around the southern tip of the island, but they could cut through from the Gulf of Bone to Selat Makassar through the silty Danau Tempe. Active faultlines stretch from Gorontalo, from Palu to the south to Koro, through Danau Matana and near Lawuk. The main island still undergoes a process of fragmentation; it could form a group of islands in the far future, separated from eachother by small straits, like currently on the Philippines.

Coasts and reefs

With it’s long and thin peninsula’s, Sulawesi has a lot of coastal areas in comparison to it’s land mass, in fact it has most coasts than any other Indonesian island. Not a single point on the main island is further away than 90 kilometers from the sea and most points only 50 kilometers. Above all, the provinces conclude over 110 islands with a surface larger than 1,5 sq.km.

Along most coasts you can find coral reefs. The most easy to reach (and the most damaged because of that) are the 16.000 sq.km. reefs in the Sangkarang- or Spermonde archipelago. The reefs around Bunaken and the neighboring islands north of Manado are also reasonably good accessible. The coral reefs of the Togian Islands and the Tomini Bay are less well-known. These are unique in Indonesia because all important reef environments can be found here. Sulawesi also has a number of remote and almost untouched reefs and clifs, for example the end of the Tukang Besi Islands in Southeastern Sulawesi.

Sulawesi is mainly mountainous. The biggest part of the island is higher than 500 meters above sealevel, and one fifth is higher than 1000 meters. The highest peaks can be found in Central-Sulawesi and in the northern part of South-Sulawesi; the highest point of the island is Rantemario, north of Enrekang, on 3450 meters. This mountain can be climbed from the southern side. The ascend to the peak is intense and cold, and probably takes several days.

In South-Sulawesi are several dead vulcanoes. The rubble of these has contributed to the fertility of the surrounding plains, just like on Jawa. The most important is Lompobatang (‘swollen belly’), southeast of Makassar.

The vulcanoes of North Sulawesi are all but dead. In 1983, a powerfull eruption exhausted a flume 15 kilometers into the atmosphere, some of it came down 900 kilometers away in Southeast Kalimantan. The explosion exterminated the small Pulau Unauna in Teluk Tomini. Luckily all islanders were evacuated. In 1991, Gunung Lokon erupted. A Swiss doctor which wanted to see the crater from a close location, died.

Sulawesi has 11 active vulcanoes (Jawa has 17 and Sumatra has 10) and many fumaroles (exhausts through which hot gasses escape) and boilers. Most of them are in Minahasa in North-Sulawesi. In the last decated Sopotan Aeseput, Lokon Empung and Api Sia (on the island Siau between the mainland and Pulai Sangihe) the most tough vulcanoes. Another vulcano on the Sangihe Talaud-archipelago, the Awu, erupted in 1966, and killed over 7300 people.
These vulcanoes are active because the seabed north of Tolitoli and east of the Minahasa and Sangihe Islands moves towards the northern arm of Sulawesi. Instead of piling up in a mountain, the seabed is forced under the exsisting island. The enourmous power and friction which is caused by this causes earthquakes and a heat which is so intense that the rock melts. Normally the molten rock cools down deeper in the earth, but sometimes it’s forced up by a weak spot in the earths crust, to the vulcano on top of it erupts.

Parts of Sulawesi (in the south and southeast) have the biggest concentration of low pH rock in the workd. Because of the high level of magnesium and heavy metals the soil is very infertile. The spread of ultralow pH material is marked by the border of cultivated and uncultivated grounds (with exception of a very ambitious resettlement programs or cultivation projects, in which they tried to cultivate the soil, which no farmer wanted to try before).

Minerals

Sulawesi is blessed with numerous mineral deposits. Parts of the north are going trough a ‘gold rush’ now, in which private people and small companies on one side are trying to extract metals with traditional methods. On the other hand the joint-ventures of Indonesian and foreign companies have extensive surveys and have ultramodern mining. Besides this, oilfields have been found, but they aren’t commercially exploited on a large scale yet. A deposit has been found south of the eastern arm of Sulawesi, near Luwuk. Near Danau Tempe is liquid natural gas. The island Buton under Southeast-Sulawesi contains the biggest reserves of natural asphalt in Asia.

The biggest mine of the country, near Saroako at the coast of Danau Matana, exploits a big amount of nickle of low quality. The Canadian company Inco started here in 1968 with putting down a big production machine. The ore in the ultra low pH rock formations have changed the life of many farmers in the village completely. The once impenetrable jungle, the source of their existance, has been flattened.

Lakes and rivers

Sulawesi has 13 lakes (danau) which are larger than 5 sq.km., among them Towuti and Poso, the second and third biggest lakes in Indonesia. During the wet season Danau Tempe equalises the surface of Danau Poso: surrounded by lowlands it can swell to three times it’s normal size, from 10,000 hectares to 35,000 hectares. Some lakes, like the Tondano- and Moat lake in North-Sulawesi, are located in the craters of old vulcanoes, while others were formed by landslides. Several waters, like Danau Matana, are very deep. The deepest point lays over 450 meters below the surface and 160 meters under sea level.

The form of Sulawesi makes the development of big rivers (sungai), like those which can be found on Sumatra or Kalimantan, impossible. The longest river on Sulawesi, Sungai Lariang, which mouths south of Palu in Selat Makassar, is hardly 200 kilometers long.

Climate

From September the cooler northwestern winds over the South China Sea, take in moisture. They arrive over the Sulawesi Sea somewhere in November in North-Sulawesi. Similar winds reach the western coast of South-Sulawesi around the end of November and come from the Jawa Sea. The westerncoast of Central-Sulawesi, protected from these winds because Borneo is so close, is relatively more dry.

Around April the changing humid winds blow from the southeast towards East-Sulawesi. Between this month and June there are percipation peaks along the southeastern coast and a little later in the northeast. Southeastern winds from the then dry and winterly, large area of Australia become more strong and more dry and influence the southern tips of Sulawesi. On the Southwestern peninsula, Jeneponto has a long dry season between April and November, while Manado on the northern peninsula has a short dry season from August to October.

The western coast of Sulawesi normally has most percipation in December, while the eastern coast has the most wet period around May. In between are areas with two dry seasons. Valleys which run north-south are almost year-round protected from the rain. Because the central part of Sulawesi is kind of protected, the Palu Valley is one of the most dry areas of Indonesia, with an annual percipation of less than 600 mm. Here, and on the dry tip of the southwestern peninsula, the wealthy cactus is evidence of the consistence of the climate.

EURUSD: Holding Short as Rebound Continues

Strategy: Short at 1.3073 (Avg), Targeting 1.2674
Floating Profit / Loss: +283 pips
We initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair sold off after putting in a bearish Harami candlestick pattern and we revised our objective to 1.2674 – the 50% Fibonacci expansion level – as well as trailed our stop-loss to breakeven (1.3073) after prices met the initial downside objective. Prices mounted a brisk recovery as expected last week and may continue to correct higher as oversold conditions are digested. We will treat gains as opportunities to add to the short position in the days ahead. A daily close above 1.2793 now sees significant resistance in the 1.2865-87 area, with a break above that targeting 1.2963.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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Dollar Run May Collapse without Market-Wide Fear Mongering

Dollar Run May Collapse without Market-Wide Fear Mongering
Euro Rebounds Against Safe Havens as Shorts Take a Breather
British Pound Traders Wonder Whether Rate Outlook Enough to Sell On
Australian Dollar Distracted by Risk Bounce, Rate Outlook Could Sabotage
Japanese Yen Drops Across the Board as Risk Appetite Buoys Carry
New Zealand Dollar Traders Sensitive to Rate Forecast, Watch 2Q CPI Forecast
Gold Rebound Stalls Despite Further Dollar Correction
Dollar Run May Collapse without Market-Wide Fear Mongering
Following two weeks of impressive climb, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index is finally taking a breather. Yet, this pause can prove more painful for the dollar and productive for risk-based assets than the recent reduction in volatility would suggest. Consolidation alone could encourage profit taking on short risk speculative interest and thereby leverage some pace on a correction. Escalating the situation even further, if speculators read the recent pullback as a good place to buy risk cheap, a temporary break could turn into a full-blown reversal. Technical traders no doubt recognize the potential on the Dollar Index itself. A head-and-shoulders index has been carved out of the past three trading days – a high-risk reversal pattern with the 10,080 range high over the 16-month standing as an immediate make-or-break level. The same pressure is read in many of the dollar-based majors. EURUSD has reversed around the same level as January’s swing low while NZDUSD marked a very obvious reversal from a multi-year trendline. Meanwhile, GBPUSD and AUDUSD have been more restrained but are ready to turn.
Most trends have a rest period. The difficulty is first in discerning whether it is a temporary correction or possibly a true trend reversal, and second how long the detour lasts. Despite the fact that the Dollar Index is fresh off its break to 16-month highs, follow through is not immediately guaranteed. Considering the dollar delivers negative real rates of return (inflation outpaces the yield on assets) on US Treasury and money market assets, the dollar’s dependency on fear and liquidity demand must be leveraged. Therefore, we should monitor benchmarks for risk trends (US equity indexes) and the level of panic behind sentiment shifts (implied volatility). While the S&P 500 put in for a sharp advance through Monday’s session, the dollar’s slide was relatively restrained. Feeding a consistent bull trend is a tall task for the greenback as it speaks to deteriorating, global financial conditions. Alternatively, a period of stability could encourage funds away from a currency that yield no return.
Euro Rebounds Against Safe Havens as Shorts Take a Breather
We could take an easy measure of the Euro’s health through the opening 24 hours by gauging how the currency performed against the investment and safe haven currencies. Against the dollar and Japanese yen, the euro managed to recover lost ground. Meanwhile, the comm bloc (the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars) gained traction against the world’s number two reserve currency. This tells us a lot about the market’s fundamental assessment of the euro. Monday’s performance was not the result of a distinct improvement in the outlook for the region’s financial situation, growth or yield. If that were the case, the euro would have shown progress against the higher yielding alternatives. Instead, the currency found relief in the tempered fears of the masses. Looking to the headlines, a lack of inherent drive was reasonable. A lot of attention was paid to French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici’s remark that France would bring a call for Eurozone bonds at Wednesday’s meeting, but that policy has been rejected consistently. In the upcoming session, we have Spanish and EFSF bond auctions.
British Pound Traders Wonder Whether Rate Outlook Enough to Sell On
We have seen a significant back and forth from the sterling these past few months, and it isn’t a coincidence that the swings coincide neatly to the ebb and flow of interest rate expectations. Perhaps in an effort to prevent speculation around monetary policy, the BoE is traditionally mum about its assessment and expectations at official meetings. That leverages the impact that more vocal members have on price and yield changes. One of the most opinionated members, BoE member Posen, offered further opinion to his recent return to dovish territory when he called on Europe to intervene “more robustly” on the financial crisis. A shift back into the dovish column would hurt a currency that is otherwise very neutral. That is why we should be concerned about the upcoming exit for the BoE’s King, Posen and Bean. Will we be more or less dovish?
Australian Dollar Distracted by Risk Bounce, Rate Outlook Could Sabotage
Interest rate expectations dropped sharply through the end of last week – a rate outlook that was mirrored in actual rates when the 10-year Australian government bond yield gapped below 3.20 percent. Yet, despite plunging these lows (the current rate puts the Aussie yield at a notable discount to its New Zealand counterpart) and the fact that FX market volatility is just off its high for the year (currently 11.1 percent), the recent rebound in underlying risk appetite and Chinese Premier Wen Jaibao’s commitment to his nation’s growth helps balance things out. This is a tenuous balance, but we must keep a close eye on risk, yield outlook and perceived Chinese strength. Risk has the greatest variability.
Japanese Yen Drops Across the Board as Risk Appetite Buoys Carry
A bounce in risk appetite has a clear impact on the yen crosses. A rise in the appreciation of yield over the threat of loss due to volatility tips and the market shorts the yen to build carry positions. Recently, the Japanese currency has further leveraged its position as an optimal funding currency in the carry trade with the benchmark 10-year JGB (government bond) yield plunging over 20 percent in the span of two months. The upcoming BoJ rate decision could further that press with a commitment to more stimulus. That is a conversation for tomorrow.
New Zealand Dollar Traders Sensitive to Rate Forecast, Watch 2Q CPI Forecast
On the carry currency hierarchy, the New Zealand dollar has soundly outpaced its Aussie and Canadian counterparts on the rebound in risk trends. This performance comes from a mixture of its competitive rate of return (besting both the AUD and CAD) as well as the relative strength of its rate forecast (a mile better than the RBA). That said, the negative rate outlook is solidifying with the market pricing in a 70 percent chance of a 25bp cut at the next RBNZ meeting and 39bps worth of cuts over 12 months. The upcoming 2 year inflation outlook should weigh in here.
Gold Rebound Stalls Despite Further Dollar Correction
The dollar’s retreat continued Monday, yet gold’s advance stalled. The precious metal was essentially unchanged through the past trading session follow two remarkable advances. Now holding just below 1600, gold traders are left to wonder what is required to leverage their favored asset to greater heights. If we want to make easily clear resistance, a solid dollar tumble (Dollar Index below 10,080) would be the most efficient means. However, in the absence of this indirect bid, we need to watch inflation and anti-euro sentiment more closely.

NZ Dollar Gains on China Growth Prospects, G8 Summit Keeps Euro Low

Fundamental Headlines
- Copper Up But Greek Contagion Fears Weigh - Reuters
- Asia Stocks Rise After China Premier Says Growth is Focus - Bloomberg
- Treasury Prices Fall as G8 Leaders Back Greece in Euro Zone – Reuters
- Gold Steadies As Softer Euro Curbs Rebound – Reuters
- Fed’s Lockhart Says Circumstances Not Ripe for QE3 – Reuters
European Session Summary
The US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) traded lower against the Australian Dollar and other high-risk counterparts on a modest improvement in financial market sentiment, but overall momentum left it poised for modest gains against the Euro and British Pound. It was a quiet start to the trading week as highly-anticipated events over the weekend failed to produce material breakthroughs or shifts in financial market sentiment.
The biggest event risk on the weekend was a highly-anticipated summit of G8 leaders. Disappointingly little action or new rhetoric nonetheless meant that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s pledges to focus more on bolstering Chinese economic growth took the spotlight. Jiabao indicated that policies may be loosened further as inflation moderates. As a result, commodity and risk-correlated assets such as the Australian dollar, NZ dollar and Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback. Prices of growth-dependent commodities like copper and crude oil similarly edged higher on stronger Chinese growth prospects.
Yet gains in broader markets were muted as Greek contagion fears continued to weigh on the global economic outlook. G8 leaders vowed to take steps to combat financial turmoil and revive a global economy threatened by Europe’s continuing debt crisis. But they were unable to offer a solution to Greece’s debt woes ahead of elections to be held on June 17.
Looking ahead, the top market event to watch out for will be the UK report for April on its Consumer Price Index (CPI), due for release at 08:30 GMT on Tuesday morning (04:30 EDT). Consumer prices in the UK are expected to have risen 0.6 percent in April from a month ago, while core inflation is expected to have fallen to 2.0 percent on an annual basis from 2.5 percent in March. Should core inflation fall in line with or more than projected, we may see calls for further quantitative easing by the Bank of England which is likely to weaken the pound.
Taking a look at credit, pressure is back on the shorter-end of the curve, with yields on Spanish 2-year notes climbing to 4.210 percent. On the longer-end, Greek 10-year notes led rising yields, increasing 15.6-basis points to a 29.299 percent yield.
NZDUSD 5-min Chart: May 21, 2012






Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Tzu-Wen Chen
The New Zealand Dollar is the top performer, rallying by 0.55 percent against the US dollar, which is among the weaker currencies on the day. The Australian and Canadian dollars were also higher against the greenback, gaining 0.12 percent and 0.05, respectively. The Japanese Yen trails all of its major currency counterparts, with the USDJPY declining by 0.38 percent.
--- Written by Tzu-Wen Chen, DailyFX Research

Guest Commentary: Oil Price Weekly Outlook May 21-25

Oil prices continued their downward trend during most of last week. The Brent premium over WTI slightly increased again to the $15 -$17 range. During the upcoming week there are several reports and publications that may affect the oil market including the U.S core durable goods, new and existing home sales reports and U.S jobless claims.
By Friday, May 18th oil price (WTI) declined by 1.17% and reached $91.48/b – the lowest price this year so far; Brent on the other hand edged up by 0.06% to $107.98/b; during last week, WTI spot oil declined by 4.84% and Brent oil by 3.63%.
In the chart below are the developments in WTI and Brent during May (prices are normalized to April 30th).



Oil Stockpiles –Slightly Rose by 2.8Mb
U.S. oil stockpiles slightly increased last week by 2.8 million bl. For the week ending on May 11th oil stockpiles reached 1,769.92 million barrels.
The upcoming report will be published on Wednesday, May 23rd and will refer to the week ending on May 18th.
Oil Related News Items
Wednesday– U.S. New Home Sales:in the latest update, the sales of new homes declined to an annual rate of 328,000 – a 7.1% decrease (month over month); if the home sales will continue to fall, it may further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market which may also affect the strength of the USD.
Thursday– U.S. Jobless Claims: in the latest report the jobless claims remained unchanged at 370,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect commodities;
Thursday– U.S Durable Goods: This report may indirectly show the shifts in U.S. demand for oil. As of March, new orders of manufactured durable goods fell by $8.4 billion; if this report will continue to be negative then it could adversely affect oil market;
Oil Outlook
In the upcoming week the U.S core durable goods and new and existing home sales reports will be published. These reports will presents the shifts in U.S economy and may affect commodities prices; if these reports' figures won't meet the current expectations then they may adversely affect oil prices. If the U.S stock market will continue to decline this may adversely affect oil. Finally, if major currencies including will further depreciate against the USD, then they may also drag down oil.
I speculate during the following week, WTI will trade between $88 and $94 and Brent between $104 and $111.

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Weekly Outlook for May 21-25

Last week gold and silver changed direction from a downward trend to a sudden steep increase on Thursday and Friday. Could this mean there is some fundamental shift in the bullion market that warrants such a shift? The main noteworthy news that might have affected metals was the tumble in the Philly Fed Index and the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting. I suspect these two items may have rekindled the old question "will there be another QE program in the near future?" This upcoming week there are items on the agenda that may affect the bullion. The main publications will revolve around the U.S core durable goods, China's manufacturing PMI, U.S new and existing home sales Japan's trade balance, and Germany's business climate. Of course the ongoing political developments in Greece and the economic slowdown in Spain may also keep the news cycle busy.
During last week Gold rose by 0.5%; Silver declined on a weekly scale by 0.61%. Furthermore, during last week the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) also rose by 0.64% and reached by May 18th 154.55, which is still a low rate for 2012.
The video link presents a gold and silver outlook for the main publications, public speeches and events that may affect bullion between May 21st and May 25th; the video includes reviewing the main reports, events, decisions and publications that will come out during the days to come. Some of these reports and events are:
Tuesday – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the shifts in U.S. existing home sales during April 2012; in the previous report regarding March 2012 the number of homes sold decreased: the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.48 million home sales – a 2.3% decline; if this trend will continue it may curb the recent rally in the USD;
Wednesday – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will present the developments in new home sales April 2012; in the previous update, the sales of new homes declined to an annual rate of 328,000 – a 7.1% decrease (month over month); if the number of home sales will continue to decline, it may further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market which may also affect the strength of the USD.
Thursday – U.S. Jobless Claims Report: in the latest report the jobless claims remained unchanged at 370,000; this upcoming weekly report may affect the path of the U.S dollar and consequently bullion prices;
Thursday – U.S Core Durable Goods: This report may indirectly show the shifts in U.S. demand for commodities. According to March 2012, new orders of manufactured durable goods decreased by $8.4 billion to $203 billion; if this report will continue to be negative then it could weaken the US dollar and also affect bullion prices;
In conclusion, I still speculate the precious metals prices won't show strength and will resume their downward trend on a weekly scale: the recent rally from the end of last week might continue at the beginning of the week on pure momentum as the speculation revolving the future steps of the Fed will continue. I don't this there is enough to go on for concluding there will be QE3. On the other hand if the upcoming U.S reports including the core durable goods, new and existing home sales and jobless claims won't meet expectations then the may further contribute to recovery of bullion. But if these reports will be positive then bullion might resume its descent. Finally, The EU related news including the developments in Greece, Spain and Italy and the upcoming speech by President Draghi might also play a role in the forex markets mainly affecting the Euro, which could consequently also affect metals.
This gold and silver prices forecast was first presents in Trading NRG
For further reading:
Weekly Outlook for May 21 –25
Gold & Silver | Weekly Recap May 14-18
By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG
Would you like to see more third-party contributors on DailyFX? For questions and comments, please send them to research@dailyfx.com

The rising cost of tailoring

Will the standardisation of OTC derivatives reduce the opportunities for institutional investors to find contracts that can meet their specific needs?

Almost inevitably, buy-side firms will lose a degree of control over how they manage risk if it becomes harder to find a customised OTC contract that will cover the exact exposure a firm wishes to hedge.

The potential risks to market stability stemming from the lack of standardisation of OTC contracts are a key concern for regulators in both Europe and the US. As such, the European market infrastructure regulation and the Dodd-Frank Act respectively seek to determine which contracts are suitable for trading on exchange-like platforms and centralised risk management via clearing houses.

Under the new rules, bespoke instruments used by the buy-side to hedge certain exposures that are not suitable for standardisation will be subject to increased capital charges, meaning their continued use will require careful consideration.

If hedging becomes less exact, could the new rules actually increase risk levels for some investors?

By transferring OTC instruments onto centrally-cleared platforms, counterparty risk is supposedly reduced, so the net level of risk for all market participants decreases. That said, market participants argue the ability of firms to reduce their own risk will be impaired if instruments that remain OTC become more expensive.

Ultimately, the new rules seek to protect the market against the kind of chaos that descended on the OTC market in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers’ collapse, but it is still up to individual firms to ensure their own risk level does not get out of hand.

How much more will the buy-side have to pay to use the more exotic OTC instruments than for those swaps that migrate to exchange-like venues?

It’s too soon to tell, but last week the European Parliament voted through its version of the Basel III capital and liquidity requirements. The European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee agreed that systemically important banks will be required to hold an additional capital buffer of 3% - which can be increased to 10%, if deemed necessary.

Market participants will be faced with a choice over how much to spend on their own risk. They can either opt to use a standardised OTC instrument, listed future or option that may constitute a less than perfect hedge, or they can obtain a customised bilateral instrument that will cost considerably more.

As swaps move on exchange, how will the resulting fragmentation affect the cost of doing business for investors?

Fragmentation could become an issue as new organised trading facilities (OTFs) in Europe and swap execution facilities (SEFs) in the US are established. Nobody yet knows how many such facilities there will be – so its difficult to predict just how fragmented the new OTC world will be.

In the US, regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission has said SEFs could take the form of a request-for-quote (RFQ) system – where participants define the contract they require and request a price from a number of participants – or a limit order book system – leading to further uncertainty.

In Europe, a greater number of multilateral trading facilities, organised trading facilities and systematic internalisers is also expected to emerge as the new derivatives rules reach the implementation phase.

However, market participants have argued that most of the liquidity will quickly migrate to a smaller number of successful venues, with the remainder falling by the wayside – just as they did for equities. Naturally, for the more liquid instruments, initially at least, a larger number of new platforms will rush onto the scene than for lower-volume instruments.

Others point out that in today’s OTC markets, we already have a degree of fragmentation, since buy-side firms need to choose between brokers when negotiating their OTC contracts bilaterally. The establishment of a large number of SEFs and OTFs would impact liquidity in the short term, but those who argue that market forces will create an equilibrium insist that the benefits outweigh the short-term costs.

Click here to vote in this month’s poll.

Elliott Holley
+44 (0)20 7397 3820
elliott.holley@information-partners.com